We should be grateful to actors Jeff Goldblum, Will Smith, and film director Roland Emmerich for cornering the Independence Day franchise with their 1996 movie. It’s forced Donald Trump and his tariff-raising advisers to badge their efforts, due to be announced tomorrow and start on Wednesday, as “Liberation Day.”
Apart from the weaker and more confusing marketing message the phrase conveys, it may force citizens to question what precisely they are being liberated from. Certainly, they will be freer to spend more of their money on goods made overseas, if they can afford it.
Whether those people whose budget extends to a Ferrari or a Rolls-Royce or a 50-year-old malt whiskey will migrate easily to a Dodge or a Buick and a Bourbon will be one of the interesting experiments of the second incarnation of Donald Trump. Medicines could become more expensive which may also have been outside the expectations of Make America Great Again supporters
That protectionist measures will stoke inflation is axiomatic. Evidence is provided by the decline in stock market values after news that US consumers anticipate inflation climbing to the highest level for more than 30 years, with price rises expected to average 4.1% a year over the next decade.nAmong the most significant recent falls were in technology stocks. America may be the acknowledged leader in this field but there are alternatives. They face enhanced and formidable competition from China as recent events indicate.
Readers with longer memories, or those who enjoy history, will be aware that America has always been a proponent of protectionism. Before Alexander Hamilton became better known as the star of a hip-hopera musical he was an evangelist for artificially raising the cost of imported goods.
The levies which will be proposed this week have their roots in the America First philosophies which emerged more than a century ago when Woodrow Wilson was president.
America First has an unsavoury lineage, having been linked from time to time with fascism, particularly in appearances by the famous aviator Charles Lindbergh, the first person to fly non-stop from New York to Paris. One alternative history, The Plot Against America, by the author Philip Roth speculates bleakly on a USA that becomes rigorously isolationist following the fictional defeat of Franklin Delano Roosevelt by Lindbergh in the 1940 presidential election.
Trump has regularly used the America First slogan during his political career, formally linking it to trade in a White House statement on January 20. “America will no longer be beholden to foreign organisations for our national tax policy, which punishes American businesses,” he said.
This week will provide us with a clearer view of what that means and the timescale for escalation of an international trade war. Europe has some cards to play, not least with the level of regulatory penalties which could be applied to companies such as Meta, Apple, and X. In one of those coincidences which occur in diplomacy an announcement on the fines is set for this week but is “subject to change”.
Ireland’s main exposures come in this sector, and in pharmaceuticals where there is a genuine threat to future investment and pressure upon companies to declare more profits in the United States which will affect the Republic’s tax base. At its worst, said our finance minister Paschal Donohoe, new tariffs could cost Ireland up to 80,000 jobs.
We had a striking example of American hucksterism at work last week when vice-president JD Vance landed in Greenland to share what he regarded as a few bracing home truths with the locals. But in a twist that would do justice to a Scandi noir the Oval Office has managed to project the USA as a hectoring bully while the Chinese are content to quietly assume the mantle of championing free trade.
Try to work that one out while picking your way through the bluster and bombast of this week’s announcements.
Why are visitors staying away?
What is going wrong with the Irish tourism industry? For those of us who believe that the parting glass is half-full, the latest dismal figures are a temporary blip to be put behind us as the clocks change and spring gets its shoes on.
But the less sanguine have more to point to than the weather with concerns about prices for accommodation, food and drink, and car rental. Add to that global uncertainty and loss of confidence and various examples of negative or unsavoury publicity and the glass half-empty brigade have evidence to support assertions that all is far from well.
Their case was buttressed when the CSO confirmed that the number of US visitors to Ireland in February fell almost 40% compared to last year. Overall some 304,300 foreign visitors completed a trip to Ireland in February 2025, a decrease of 30% compared to 2024. Total spending naturally fell back, but average spend and length of stay also declined.
The number of US tourists — Ireland’s second largest market — was 31,200 during the month, compared to 46,600 last year. Even Ireland’s most loyal customer base, the British who comprised 49% of our market, fell back 24% to 150,400 in February. The Germans declined by 18% to 17,800.
Irish businesses will be concerned that what appeared to be an anomaly last autumn is now accelerating into a trend. The March figures, which will include St Patrick’s Day, will indicate whether we are entering a full-blown slump.
VAR play
The major research project taking place at University College Cork to assess the European impact of the Vikings may have to open a new chapter if the Norwegians are successful in saving us from the modern sporting curse of video assistant refereeing (VAR).
Football fans plan a series of protests after the game’s governing body voted to continue to use VAR despite Norway’s professional clubs voting it out. Demonstrations will include staying out of matches until a specified time, and throwing tennis balls and, to add a specifically Nordic flavour, fishcakes, onto the pitch.
So far Sweden is the only European country to have rejected the system. Many fans, tired of the delays which take place during nearly all matches, will hope that the idea will eventually become as successful as other Viking exports.