Éamonn Fitzmaurice: Mayo press can counter Kerry fluidity but Croker ups the ante 

The fact that one of the teams in each final — Mayo, Roscommon, Offaly, and Wexford — are playing championship a week later could be significant. Each will want to win, but at all costs will be looking to avoid injury. Players that are carrying knocks, particularly of the soft tissue variety, will be left out. Time will tell whether this will tilt the balance one way or the other. Everyone will be looking to avoid a heavy defeat, which would be a downer heading for championship. Croke Park and the new rules lend to exactly this if a team is even a few percent off.

For Mayo and Kerry, as well as competing hard for silverware they will be feeling out how well their games suit the Big House. Dublin have already played three at home and will play at least one Leinster Championship match there prior to the All-Ireland series. 

For two teams with big ambitions of being involved at the sharp end, both league finalists will relish this early opportunity for a road-test. Mayo have already had an outing there, so Kerry in particular will be curious about how their game under the new rules transfers. Croke Park has always played differently. In general it is a kicker’s pitch that requires legs.

One of the big takeaways from Mayo’s round 5 win against Kerry was the effectiveness of their press, both on kickouts and in general play. They will have appreciated how Kerry are moving the ball in the games since, and accordingly the importance of their press multiplies. They will feel the easiest way to disrupt Kerry’s free-flowing game is to deny them possession.

As they did in Castlebar, they will aim to force Shane Ryan’s restarts long to contests. They accomplished this by regularly pushing four players into the full-forward line. Often Stephen Coen was the auxiliary and as soon as he knew the restart was going long he sprinted out towards the middle of the field to lend a hand there. They were excellent on breaking ball.

I will be interested to see if Kerry have something up their sleeves for this scenario tomorrow. On his first night back in the second half against Galway Stephen Cluxton showed the possibilities that lie in mid-range kickouts to the space that Croke Park allows. 

For Mayo the risk associated with such an aggressive press is that if it’s broken a team is wide open. In MacHale Park that risk-reward bias was tilted in the home team’s favour. Were Shane Ryan to pick out some mid-range kickouts to break the press that risk could rapidly outweigh the reward in Croke Park.

Last time out Mayo were also excellent, as they routinely are, with their forwards pressing in general play. Kerry struggled at times to come out. It was a case of pass the parcel, in terms of the ball and responsibility. I would expect a significant improvement from them in this regard tomorrow.

Gavin White will be a big boost in this respect. The Kingdom backs will need to straighten up and take on their man coming out, together with strong running to support off the shoulder. When that support is there it is possible to play one-touch football. Don’t give Mayo a target to tackle, will be the motto. The westerners are more than happy to oblige if you do. Keep the ball moving and it is extremely difficult to make contact. Slow it down or go laterally against Mayo and you are inviting trouble.

In terms of Mayo’s work-ons, their forward movement springs to mind. For the last 15 years they have thrived in chaos. Hard running, support play, breaking the line, 100 miles-an-hour stuff. In general, it is off the cuff. Instinctive. When it works it is very hard to deal with. However when it doesn’t, especially against the top teams, they can look unimaginative and struggle upfront. Their movement becomes predictable and they sometimes crowd each other out, often moving away from goals rather than towards it.

When they had Andy Moran and Cillian O’Connor inside, and Jason Doherty and Kevin McLoughlin linking outside them, Mayo were able to mix the ball well. Currently they can use Aidan O’Shea and Ryan O’Donoghue inside which in theory should work, but doesn’t always seem to. Frank Irwin’s form and the emergence of Davitt Neary (who I have been extremely impressed with throughout the league) should help in this regard.

Unsurprisingly, both finalists have plenty of individuals playing really well.

For Mayo, Donncha McHugh, Matthew Ruane, Neary, Aidan O’Shea, Ryan O’Donoghue and Irwin are all motoring well. On the Kerry side, Jason Foley, Brian Ó Beaglaoich, Mike Breen, Joe O’Connor, Paudie and David Clifford and Dylan and Paul Geaney are all operating close to the top of their games. Newer players such as Damien Bourke and Seán O’Brien have settled into their roles. Critically for Kerry they have subs impacting, Conor Geaney and Tony Brosnan in particular. This may be enough to tilt the balance tomorrow.

IN the Division 2 final, both teams have been hugely impressive at different times. Roscommon have stalled in recent weeks but have the capacity to produce a big one. They were two-point experts early in the league, Diarmuid Murtagh alone has eight, but this has dried up. Enda Smith, as always, will be central to their efforts but if they are to win it is their backs that will need to excel.

While they lost last weekend I have been really taken with Monaghan. They have impressively bounced back from last year’s relegation. Some of their forward combinations have been outstanding. Stephen O’Hanlon, Micheál Bannigan, David Garland, a resurgent Jack McCarron, and Conor McCarthy have been to the fore. They still have plenty of steel at the back with Kieran Duffy, Ryan O’Toole and Ryan Wylie controlling matters defensively. As they have a nice three-week break to championship I fancy them here.

Division 3 is a clash of the confident and the diffident. Offaly are on the crest of a wave, as a county and as a team. Mickey Harte’s belief system will have emphasised this. They are scoring plenty of goals (15) and have conceded the joint lowest in the entire league (5). This is always a decent starting point when concocting a recipe for success.

Some of their U20 players, particularly the likes of Cormac Egan, thriving at wing-back, are finding their feet at senior level.

Kildare still have barely healed war wounds from their experiences over the last few years. When they are good they are excellent but when things go against them they struggle. They are still relearning how to dig in when necessary. Last weekend they reacted well to Antrim’s early running to turn it around and win. That is something for them to grasp and build on. Darragh Kirwan was key and he will be this weekend again.

I saw the Division 4 finalists’ regulation game in Rathkeale in February. Wexford won an edgy encounter. Both teams have improved considerably since then. Wexford are the only team with a 100% record nationally, something they will be anxious to preserve. Limerick can’t afford to rely on James Naughton as much this evening. He will be a marked man after last weekend’s scoring exploits.

The likes of Emmet Rigter and Peter Nash are good score getters and will need to share the load if Limerick are to cause an upset.

The league has flown by and wraps tomorrow evening with the Division 1 winners being presented with Corn Mhichíl Uí Mhuircheartaigh for the first time. That man personified all that was good about people in general and the GAA in particular. It is appropriate that a national trophy honours his memory in perpetuity. Come Monday for good or bad, we immediately cast our eyes towards championship. The clocks are about to go forward. The cuckoo has arrived. It’s time to go after Sam.