Grocery prices soar: Is it still cheaper to shop in Northern Ireland?

That morning, I watched the invasion of Ukraine live on TV and wondered if it would impact the cost of living.

According to the Central Statistics Office’s consumer price index (CPI), items that cost €100 in February 2022 would now cost €114.30 to allow for inflation.

This recorded percentage change in the cost of goods and services since I last made the specialist shop is 14.3%.

It’s important to point out that the CSO does not set prices; it measures variations, and the list of items logged each month is considerable.

Nor does the CPI reflect an average shopping basket, which is why we, as consumers, may be feeling a bigger pinch than the index and monthly statistical increases in the cost of food and drink reflect.

Bear in mind also that when we hear news that inflation is slowing or has decreased compared to last month, that inflation is still rising, albeit at a slower rate.

While most price increases have eased, they are still on the rise and in the past three years, we have not known a net negative inflation rate.

I have journeyed to Belfast many times since as our eldest daughter has made her home in the city.

Over the years, I have grown to love Ireland’s biggest Northern city and her people, but I have bought my food there less and less since 2022.

I’ve noticed that perhaps the value that I used to benefit from wasn’t quite the same. Visits are always essential but don’t centre around grocery shopping in any event

Last weekend, armed with my old shopping list and a substantial spreadsheet to compare the results, I doubled up a family visit with an identical grocery shop on the way home.

To say there were differences compared to three years ago would be an understatement.

Fuel prices now are 20c per litre less than in spring 2022, making it a cheaper trip this time around, but not by much.

Travelling from the M50, and allowing for a return trip of 320km, will cost the average driver approximately €43 in fuel, and that’s not allowing for time.

From my hometown of Balbriggan, it’s a round trip costing €34 in fuel, whereas a return train ticket for our group of four costs approximately €60.

As you’ll see, the figures I have uncovered show that Northern Ireland is no longer a destination for shoppers from the Republic

Plus, the increases in the price of groceries both sides of the border far exceed the CPI (consumer price index).

Small wonder that consumers are really noticing the pinch when they are doing their grocery shop across the island.

There are varying reasons for the different food prices in each jurisdiction, however.

Salaries are lower in Northern Ireland, but the cost of housing is much higher in the Republic.

The cost of rent and shipping produce to the Republic can put a higher burden on supermarkets, whereas some retailers in the North can subsume those costs as part of their British-based economies of scale.

Brexit has had a part to play, too, although by the time I did my first research shop in 2022, Brexit had been in operation for over two years.

Then, it was significantly cheaper to do a food shop in Britain, provided you were visiting already or could buy enough food to compensate for the cost of fuel to get there and back.

It’s clear that NI-based families are struggling more with the cost of food

The Trussell Trust distributes food parcels to those in need across Britain and their annual report says that they experienced an 11% increase in demand last year compared to 2022/23 levels.

They go on to say that this increase is considerably higher than the figures for England, Scotland, and Wales.

Yellow pack food

Yellow packs or own-label value food in any supermarket tends to be the cheapest you can pay for a product.

These can be “loss leaders” to drive consumers into the shop and attract them to buy other products at a profit.

Yellow pack foods are known for having simpler and sometimes poorer quality packaging to save on money.

A tin of tomatoes may omit a ring pull can, for example, and buyers will need a tin opener. That can save producers as much as 5c per tin at the manufacturing stage.

Even so, the contents of many products, such as a bag of porridge oats or self-raising flour, are challenging to meddle with.

Buyers may have to decant these items into more reliable containers when they get home if the bags are a little thinner.

Thrifty value products can save all shoppers money on their total bill

While I always emphasise that I’m not a prepper, years of living on a tight budget have conditioned me to keeping ample stocks of ambiant or dried food at home.

In case we run out of cash, I know that I can feed my family for up to three months, although they may grumble about too much beans or lentils after a week or two.

Yellow pack foods form a key part of this food stash.

Three years later and the cost of my grocery shop in Asda in Belfast was higher than three of the major Republic retailers and lower than the remaining two of the big five: Aldi, Dunnes Stores, Lidl, SuperValu, and Tesco.

Sample shopping list in Asda increased by 39%

I took the shop in Asda, converted the prices to euro, and compared this receipt with the current prices of the exact same products (or as close as possible) from the Republic’s top five supermarkets.

It may surprise you to learn that the cheapest shop was Tesco and not the discount supermarkets Aldi and Lidl, although these are very close behind.

Tesco has the benefit of a wider range of products, however, and does offer most of the shopping list as yellow pack or private label goods.

The discounters struggled to match these prices because they didn’t stock their own brand to match

For example, on the day of my survey, I couldn’t find Aldi brand potato waffles on sale and had to select a premium brand costing €2.99, whereas Tesco’s offering was just €1.39.

In comparison, the most expensive shop was SuperValu for exactly the same reason; a lack of private label products on my list.

Free range eggs up 45% in Northern Ireland

The highest price for eggs across the survey is SuperValu, followed swiftly by Asda at €1.97, but all other supermarkets are charging €1.95.

At the time of my original shopping visit in 2022, half a dozen medium free range eggs cost just €1.08 in Asda, compared to €1.59 in the Republic. Eggs are not even the highest increase on my list.

That dubious award goes to a packet of dried spaghetti, which has risen by 73% from 25c to 90c.

You might be familiar with supermarket price guarantees or price checks.

It’s the job of secret shoppers to visit rival retailers in person to survey the cost of a sample shopping basket.

Some of the retailers then match their own label prices, often as a loss leader, to attract new customers or retain customer loyalty.

This is very clearly seen in the cost of eggs and dairy products such as butter and milk.

The price of butter has increased by 35% in three years

For Irish shoppers, butter is a non-negotiable product, and as it’s bought weekly or fortnightly the increase in prices has been more noticeable than chocolate, which has rocketed in the past year by 13.7%.

Chocolate is something that can be left on the shelf or eaten less. Buying dairy products is engrained in our shopping habits.

Recently, I have been receiving quite a few messages about the rising cost of butter and dairy products from Irish Examiner readers.

While butter and dairy didn’t form part of my original research visit, I commenced tracking these prices back in 2022 for the Irish Examiner Weekend magazine.

According to the CSO, the cost of butter has increased by 11.8% in the past year, and this week in my local supermarket, a ½ pound of own-brand Irish butter will set me back €2.29.

Back in March 2022, that exact butter cost €1.49; that’s an increase of 35% in the price of butter in just three years.

A pound of butter for a fiver

While I didn’t track the price of butter in Britain three years ago, I checked the prices this week in Belfast where the pack sizes differ slightly, with 250g pats of butter.

Here, the cheapest I could find was Lurpak costing €2.42 for 250g, which is a little bit cheaper per gram compared to the Republic.

Interestingly, I couldn’t find the brand name Kerrygold up North, which is priced at €4.95 for a pound weight.

Instead, Golden Cow produced by the same company, retails in the North for £4.95, allowing for the exchange rate that’s €5.92 for 500g, or €5.37 for a pound weight.

Proving that the pound of butter has certainly surpassed the €5 mark somewhere on the island of Ireland.

Average shop increased by up to 30%

The biggest increase in three years across the Irish supermarkets was 30% in SuperValu.

This is tied to the business’s commitment to Irish small and artisan producers and comes as no surprise considering the retailer stocks few yellow pack products.

The lowest increase overall was Tesco at 18%; several products cost less this time around, including pasta, rice, and bran flakes, with others staying the same price.

According to Kantar, Tesco has the second biggest market share at the moment in the Republic, at 23.9%, but it’s clear that their presence and size across Ireland and Britain has helped with economies of scale, which trickles down to prices at the till.

Cost of living on the rise

April marks the month where price rises across the service industries begin to be implemented in the Republic.

From SSE Airtricity’s pre-announced energy increases to health insurance, internet and mobile phone providers, to the cost of Sky TV, all of these will impact on consumers disposable income.

Couple this with the impending increase from 9% to 13.5% Vat on electricity and gas, and households will have less to spend on food every week.

The cost of food will continue to rise, but it’s difficult to say by how much.

All producers and retailers in Ireland are now dealing with higher labour costs; the minimum wage has risen and pension auto-enrollment is imminent.

As an island nation, we are vulnerable to the price of fuel, import tariffs, and shipping.

The weather has a significant part to play in the cost of dairy

In fact, all foods are vulnerable to climate change, but some are more so than others.

Chocolate, for example, is particularly sensitive to extreme temperatures and poor weather in the past three years has contributed to a poor harvest, which has driven up prices.

On the other hand, olive oil prices, which were high in the past year, have begun to drop slightly, a welcome relief for those on the Mediterranean diet.

However, the increased cost of food production has not been passed on to shoppers by retailers.

The cost of beef has risen over the past several months, and supermarkets are reluctant to raise their prices above a comfort zone or tipping point, after which consumer purchases will decline.

This has a knock-on effect for farmers, putting retailers in a difficult position between financially pressed customers and suppliers who are also struggling.

The Government here has so far ruled out the global cost of living payments in Budget 2026, favouring targeted intervention for those who are finding it most difficult instead.

It’ll be interesting to see if that decision holds as food prices continue to rise.

Gone are the days of taking busloads of passengers over the border for a day’s shopping trip. I will buy my food from local sources and skip the grocery list when we are visiting Belfast from now on.