While Ireland has been sheltered for many years by the impacts of climate change and energy insecurity, the recent increase in extreme weather events and the cost-of-living crisis due to reduced natural gas supplies into the European Union after Russia invaded Ukraine have exposed our vulnerabilities to both.

There is a lot to unpack as we try to understand this decision, and its implications. Here are four reflections to consider in this regard.

Weaning off fossil fuels

Firstly, we urgently need to wean ourselves off natural gas and other fossil fuels.

Climate science is unequivocal about the fact that burning natural gas and other fossil fuels is the main cause of widespread and rapid climate change globally.

The growing evidence of climate change occurring in Ireland is clear from Met Éireann reporting recently that in Ireland, seven of the top 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005.

The more noticeable impacts of climate change are the growing number and severity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, drought, wildfire, storms and floods.

The World Weather Attribution reported in January that "climate change contributed to the deaths of at least 3,700 people and the displacement of millions in 26 weather events we studied in 2024". 

The impacts in Ireland are also growing, as evidenced the 2023 flooding in Midleton from Storm Babet, and the damage caused across the west and south of Ireland more recently during Storm Éowyn.

We clearly need to improve our climate resilience, and also to wean ourselves off fossil fuels to stop contributing to the devastation climate change is causing.

The good news is the transition away from a fossil fuel energy system to a renewable energy system is underway here, helped by our abundant supplies of renewable energy available to us.

Based on data from Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, the share of total energy use for electricity, heating and transport in Ireland coming from renewable sources doubled over the 10-year period from 2013 to 2023.

The bad news is it is not happening fast enough, with Ireland’s renewable energy share currently only at 15% however, meaning 85% of Ireland’s energy still comes from fossil fuels.

Increase security of electricity supply

Secondly, we also need to increase our security of electricity supply Most of the progress we have made has been in electricity supply, with 40% of our electricity now coming from renewable energy, mostly from wind, with growing amounts of solar and a small contribution from hydro power.

We have a target to double our renewable share of electricity to 80% by 2030.

Delays in developing wind power at sufficient pace however, coupled with growing consumption of electricity, largely due to the growth in data centres, have stopped renewables from exceeding 40% for a few years now.

We therefore need as a first priority to accelerate wind energy and solar power development to ensure we have sufficient security of electricity supply in the future to keep the lights on.

It is clear from our research at UCC that we also need to invest in the electricity grid, increase electricity storage, manage electricity demand and sufficient electricity capacity from other sources for those times when it is not sufficiently windy or sunny.

Only use gas-fired power plants when needed

Thirdly, new gas-fired power plants are essential but need to operate very differently Additional gas-fired electricity generation capacity is necessary in the short term in parallel with increasing the amount of wind and solar energy feeding into our electricity system.

These gas power plants, however, should only be called on when needed rather than operating continuously, to get the benefit of the available electricity generating capacity while at the same time reducing our overall use of gas.

This need has long been recognised and Ireland’s electricity grid operator EirGrid holds auctions for projects to deliver electricity generating capacity through a capacity renumeration market that operates in parallel with the electricity trading market.

While many auctions have taken place and delivered contracts, many projects have not materialised within the timeframe required, leading to reductions in the security of Ireland’s electricity supply over the past number of years.

To address the failure, the Moneypoint Power Plant has extended its operation along with the use of emergency generators, both of which resulting in higher carbon emissions levels.

Shannon LNG did secure a capacity contract from EirGrid in March 2023 for this approved power plant, as noted in An Bórd Pleanála’s inspector report.

Increase security of gas supply

Fourthly, gas security of supply is also essential as we wean off natural gas An Bórd Pleanála’s decision has also prompted further discussion regarding Ireland’s position in relation to accommodating liquefied natural gas terminals, which were not directly included in this decision, but are proposed by Shannon LNG under a separate planning application.

In addition to increasing our security of electricity supply, Ireland also needs to increase our security of gas supply.

There are two key distinct dimensions to security of gas supply, the risk of significant price fluctuations and the risk of a physical interruption of gas supply.

The Government published a policy document ‘Securing Ireland’s Gas Supplies’ in 2023, concluding on the one hand there would be a significant reduction of natural gas use (drawing on UCC analysis) and secondly the need to establish a State-led strategic gas emergency reserve.

Reducing our dependence on natural gas limits our exposure economically to fuel price fluctuations internationally due to geopolitical events that we do not control.

We were strongly impacted in price terms by Russia turning off the natural gas taps to the European Union, but we did not experience an interruption in physical gas supply because we import most of our natural gas from the UK and very little of its gas comes from Russia.

However, Ireland is among a small few EU member states that do not have gas storage facilities, hence the benefit of our own strategic gas emergency reserve.

In conclusion, building new gas infrastructure is essential for increasing electricity security of supply and for gas security of supply, but if, and only if, this infrastructure is operated such that Ireland is quickly and urgently weaned off gas usage.

• Professor Brian Ó Gallachóir is associate vice-president of sustainability at UCC