Jack Anderson: Odds stacked against regulator in problem gambling race
YOU BET: Racegoers at the bookmakers at Cheltenham Racecourse. Pic: Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images
I like a bet. The dream of every mug punter, and I am the muggiest of mugs, is a nice touch on an outsider. Gold Cup day at Cheltenham opened with Poniros (100-1) becoming the longest-priced winner ever of the Triumph Hurdle, and the first horse to win at the Festival at such odds since Norton’s Coin surprised everyone (and my few bob on Desert Orchid) to win the 1990 Gold Cup.
I had nothing on Poniros nor did I have any money on Mon Môme who won the Grand National at the same odds in 2009, the first to do so since Foinavon in 1967 which is forever set against the soundtrack of that evocative Michael O’Hehir commentary: “Rutherfords has been hampered, and so has Castle Falls; Rondetto has fallen, Princeful has fallen, Norther has fallen, Kirtle Lad has fallen, The Fossa has fallen, there's a right pile-up. Leedsy has climbed over the fence and left his jockey there. And now, with all this mayhem, Foinavon has gone off on his own!” Foinavon remains a romantic story, but Poniros’ win is about as sentimental as a balance sheet. The horse is owned by Brighton and Hove Albion’s millionaire owner Tony Bloom (hence the blue and white colours). Bloom, a well-known poker player (known as “The Lizard” – he’s so cold blooded) started his working life as an options trader but soon used his mathematical ingenuity to profitable effect on the gambling markets, eventually setting up a company called StarLizard.
According to its website, StarLizard is a data specialist company which “consumes information on every aspect of a sporting fixture to provide an unparalleled view of what’s happening on, and off, the pitch” and uses “cutting-edge analytics with our expertise and passion for sport to produce world leading match predictions.” In short, StarLizard is a betting syndicate.
Bloom also runs his football club very well as unusually for a club owner in the Premier League he knows his football, loves the club but doesn’t leave his business acumen at the stadium gates. In football, as in gambling, he has always had an eye for the future. Starting out he was one of the first in Europe to work the Asian handicap markets - a form of spread betting on football. He operates StarLizard like a hedge fund and, as with other high end punting operations, he is currently leveraging (I love a bit of corporate speak) the potential of AI to churn the data on who might get up that Cheltenham hill the fastest.
All of the above shows that on Ireland’s doorstep is one of the world’s oldest, most sophisticated and innovative of gambling markets. Another UK betting operator, Bet365, is, for example, the largest private sector employer in Stoke employing over 8,600 people. Into this world steps Ireland’s new gambling regulator (Anne Marie Caulfield) whose enabling legislation came into effect this month.
Under the legislation, Caulfield, as CEO of the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) is supported by a seven-member authority. The GRAI has two primary objectives – to ensure that gambling within the state is regulated via a licencing system and to establish safeguards to address problem gambling.
The seven-member GRAI authority reflects those priorities, consisting of former government officials, some with senior regulatory and compliance experience, a barrister with licensing expertise, and a highly respected addiction psychologist. Only one of the members of the authority has any industry experience – David Hickson, formerly chair and director of the Gaming & Leisure Association of Ireland (the representative body for casino and gaming arcades).
It is noteworthy that no one on the authority has any executive experience in a sports gambling company – neither does the CEO – especially the remote, online markets, where there has been significant recent growth in Ireland. Most people today find their bookie in the app store on their phone and not in a windowless high street shop.
It's possible that this lack of experience contributed to the GRAI CEO’s rather naïve attempt, covered by my colleague Ian Mallon in a recent The Pitch column, to restrict incidental betting advertising (on jerseys, advertising hoardings etc) during the coverage of live sporting events. In a season where 11 of the 20 Premier League clubs have a gambling company as their front-of-shirt sponsor, the regulator’s proposal was, in effect, that the broadcasting of the Premier League in Ireland would have to be shirtless.
Lessons from around the world show that gambling regulators need hands-on experience of sports betting. In the US, for example, there has been huge growth in sports gambling since a US Supreme Court decision in 2018 permitted the wider legalisation of betting. Research published last year from a team at UCLA showed that in states that have legalised online sports gambling, the risk that a household goes bankrupt increased in that state by 25 to 30 percent, and that the households principally affected were in lower income areas.
In Australia, which per captia has the highest gambling losses globally (mainly due to “the pokies” or slot machines), there has recently been a pronounced upsurge in sports betting especially among young men. University of Melbourne data released this week shows that between 2015 and 2022 (coinciding with technological leaps in online betting accessibility), the number of Australian men involved in sports betting has increased by more than 57%.
Globally, betting markets are dealing with the emergence of AI. AI can now assess huge amounts of past data enabling it to predict future game outcomes in milliseconds. Casual punters can now access data of a quality once only ever available to professional punters. Moreover, AI has the capacity to constantly update on various probabilities in, and outcomes of, sports events, allowing bookies to offer “dynamic” betting options during live matches. Ante post betting is now almost a thing of the past, as AI tech ensures that future markets are always in-play.
In sum, there is a lot on the GRAI’s agenda – a right pile up as Michal O’Hehir might have put it. Squeeze the regulatory vice too tight and punters may turn to the illegal or black markets where both consumer protection and tax revenue (and likely your stake) will be lost. Don’t squeeze at all and the industry self-regulates.
For now, the focus for the GRAI is on problem gambling, the prevalence of which the CEO says, rightly, is likely underestimated in Ireland. The bigger long-term issue though is probably contained in that phase, “problem” gambler. The phrase suggests that the problem rests solely with the person who gambles and that with some self-discipline and self-exclusion they can control their addiction. But as research from around the world has shown the problem is often with an industry which, on its irresponsible side, markets to and targets the young and vulnerable with bonus bets and tailored social media messaging.
Yes, it's romantic to muse about having your money on a 100/1 winner and to reminisce about Foinavon hunting around Aintree in the swinging sixties but the commercial reality of betting today, as it ever was, is that such a long odds winner is dreamed of only by the bookies.
