Fears Irish beef may get too expensive for the UK

The fear is that beef will get too expensive, and it's a timely caution, with beef cattle prices in the UK fast approaching £7 (€8.30) per deadweight kg, or close to £3,000 (€3,550) liveweight, which many in the industry fear is unsustainable for butchers and processors.

UK shoppers have endured large price hikes in beef, which can mainly be traced back to a significant tightening in the UK supply.

For example, an M&S Aberdeen Angus rump steak (227g) sold on Ocado was 27.3% more expensive on February 11, at £7, compared to January 1. And a Birchwood British 30-day matured XXL beef roasting joint (1kg) in Lidl has increased in price by 40.4%.

The price per kg for standard mince increased 5.4% from January 4 to February 15, lean mince and sirloin steak were on average 8% dearer. Beef roasting joints rose by an average of 17%.

It comes after the British cattle supply reduced by about 5% due to poor beef farm profitability, declining direct payments, and low uptake of new agriculture policy schemes. And the supply is expected to slump further in 2025, with an increase in import requirements of 12% on 2024 levels predicted.

But that will depend on continuing strong demand for beef. Many retailers may have delayed pushing prices up, but big price hikes may be coming.

Price gap

With the lion's share (77% by value) of beef imports coming from Ireland, the beef cattle price differential between the two countries will play a vital role in sustaining the UK beef trade.

The 11% rise in volumes imported from Ireland in 2024 compared to 2023 was triggered by a wide price gap across the Irish Sea. The gap was €1.20 in the week of February 24, and it was still €1.10 at the start of March (with Irish beef cattle prices at €6.61 and UK prices at €7.62, per kg deadweight for R3 prime male cattle, excluding VAT).

So the status quo continues for the time being of a high price differential guaranteeing that the UK continues to take nearly half of Ireland's beef exports, in value terms. As long as demand exceeds supply, it's good news for Irish beef exporters. 

However, a recent UK price comparison had an Irish R3 steer quoted at £5.58/kg, versus Australia’s young cattle Index at £3.22/kg, Argentinian steers at £3.66/kg, and Brazilian steers at £2.71/kg. Even in the US, where there is also a shortage of cattle, prices were quoted at £5.39/kg for dressed steers.

But a reputation for high quality helps Ireland to dominate UK beef imports, and the price gap which many farmers complain about is the guarantee of a strong Ireland to UK beef trade. 

Some even complain that the price should be equal, despite Ireland exporting 90%, while the UK imports much of its beef. They are fundamentally different markets.

Irish exports

Meanwhile, with the Irish cattle slaughter forecast to fall by 5% in 2025, market analysts in Ireland and the UK are closely watching how European live export policy evolves.

Irish live cattle exports rose by 17% in 2024, to just under 379,000 head, with calves accounting for 56% of this trade. Weanling and store cattle were the key drivers of increased live trade, driven by European dairy and beef herd reductions.

But these live exports, especially those of veal calves, face an uncertain future, as proposed changes to EU transport legislation will add further cost sand administration requirements.

If the Netherlands stops taking Irish calves after 2025, can other markets be found to maintain the strong Irish beef and cattle trades? It is the big question in how the beef trade develops.

As it stands, the Irish cattle population is on course to further tighten in 2026, with registrations of calves for beef production (excluding dairy heifers) down a further 2% attributed to the prolonged winter of 2023-24, changing nitrogen regulations, and the aging agricultural workforce.