Donal Lenihan: Ireland must restore faith but France will be worthy champions

While that’s no longer the case, it’s imperative Ireland immediately bounce back from the disappointment of finishing a distinct second to an excellent French side last weekend with a performance more in keeping with the quality within the squad.

In theory there’s still a championship to be won, even if Ireland have lost control of their destiny. A very unlikely sequence of results would have to go their way for that to be achieved. That said, Ireland must set the ground rules by kicking off the final day of action on Super Saturday with a convincing, bonus point win at the Stadio Olimpico.

Having enjoyed a very productive 2024 Six Nations campaign with victories over Scotland and Wales and a very creditable draw against France in Lille - out half Paulo Garbisi missed a last minute penalty to win that game - this championship has not lived up to expectations for Gonzalo Quesada’s men, despite beating Wales 22-15 in round 2 of action, a victory that cost Warren Gatland his job.

Despite remaining in contention for honors right up to the final day, it’s been a disappointing tournament from an Irish perspective. Under pressure for long periods in the opening game against England, Simon Easterby’s men regrouped well in the second half to secure a bonus point win.

Ireland produced their best performance on the road against a fancied Scottish team in Murrayfield to claim a second bonus point win that propelled them to the top of the table. Since then however, things have gone a bit pear-shaped.

Indiscipline cost them in Cardiff when Garry Ringrose was sent off for a clumsy high tackle. The fact that Bundee Aki was able to replace him after 20 minutes - a first for Ireland - saved our bacon but denied Ireland the four try bonus point they would have banked on in advance. That missing point has proved costly.

That uncharacteristic lack of discipline was in evidence once again last weekend with Joe McCarthy and Calvin Nash both seeing yellow. Whatever about Wales, there’s no way you can survive against this quality French attacking machine with 14 men for 20 minutes. It’s no coincidence that France landed three of their five tries during those spells.

First priority today is to make sure indiscipline doesn’t resurface. The second is to establish a solid set- piece platform to enable a completely revamped Irish back line function to its optimum. The most heartening aspect of the performance against the giant French pack was the quality of the Irish scrum and lineout with both platforms delivering their best return of the tournament to date.

With Tadhg Furlong finally back in the matchday squad, that should help Ireland reestablish the ground rules up front and aid what, up to now, has been a disappointing Irish attack.

The faltering attack 

A week too late perhaps but Ireland’s back line, with the return to arms of Ringrose, Mack Hanson, James Lowe and Jack Crowley, looks infinitely better equipped than last weekend to finally deliver a performance more in tune with the attacking prowess that landed championship success over the last two seasons.

France top the table due, in no short measure, to a blistering offence geared towards extracting the maximum return from the finishing power and incredible pace of Damian Penaud and Louis Bielle-Bierrey on the wings. The figures speak for themselves.

France have scored 26 tries in their four outings, double Ireland's tally of 13. Even that number is a bit flattering when you consider two of those were scored by Cian Healy and Jack Conan in the 77th and 80th minutes against France when the battle was well and truly over.

Admittedly 11 of those French tries were scored against Italy, suggesting there’s ample opportunity for this reconstructed Irish back line to exploit a porous Italian defence that has leaked 25 tries in the tournament, 18 in the last two games alone.

Ireland’s inability to score, despite setting up camp in the French 22 for the opening quarter in Dublin, when enjoying over 70% of territory and possession, proved fatal, even more so when conceding the opening try within a minute of McCarthy’s costly yellow card to close that crucial opening period five points in arrears.

Renowned for their attacking flair behind the scrum and brutality up front, it was the magnificence of the French defence that ultimately drained the confidence out of Ireland. Ireland’s attack looked all too predictable. Unable to generate any momentum and those crucial metres after contact in their carries, the French inflicted a series of dominant tackles.

With Crowley given a first championship start since last season’s successful campaign, he now has the opportunity to drive Ireland forward and create opportunities for what appears to be a sharper and potentially more creative three quarter line.

With Lowe and Hansen restored to the wings, their ability to shift into playmaking roles and offer themselves as first receivers from broken play should help Crowley create more line breaks.

That should be more than sufficient to win this one with plenty of breathing space.

France’s title to lose 

Once the final whistle blows at the Stadio Olimpico, all Ireland can do is sit back and watch what unfolds, firstly in Cardiff where Wales seek to break an unprecedented 16-match losing streak stretching back to the 2023 World Cup.

England need a minimum of a four-try bonus point win, something Ireland failed to achieve in Cardiff. With that in mind, Steve Borthwick has selected what, on paper at least, appears a more creative and exciting attacking unit. Should they secure that anticipated five-point win, Ireland will be eliminated from the title race even before France take to the field at the Stade de France.

Given how the Welsh public got behind their team on their home patch against Ireland, and knowing what a win over the old enemy and greatest rivals England would mean, the Principality Stadium, with the roof closed, is poised to deliver another emotionally charged setting.

Can this improving but still vulnerable Welsh side somehow summon enough belief to not only create a shock but enable Ireland to remain in contention for ultimate honours, at least until matters begin to unfold in Paris?

However unlikely that scenario, I suspect it would only amount to a stay of execution from an Irish perspective. I just don’t see any way that the French, enigmatic as they are, will find a way to lose to Scotland in front of their adoring public.

The one thing we do know is this Scottish side, especially when Finn Russell is in the mood and on the front foot, is capable of scoring tries. The biggest issue for them, however, is the lack of physicality and presence in their front five. That power deficit will become even more pronounced when Fabian Galthié summons seven fresh forwards off the bench to wreak havoc over the closing 30 minutes.

Despite what happens elsewhere, I expect the French to be celebrating a first Six Nations win since 2022 when events come to a close late into the Parisian night. Given the excellence of their try-laden performances throughout the campaign, I think France will be worthy winners.