Missing EU climate targets could cost Ireland up to a 'colossal' €26bn
The report found that even if Ireland was to put into effect the measures from its own climate action plan by 2030, it could still amount to a bill or between €3bn and €12bn. File Picture: Gareth Fuller/PA
Ireland faces a bill as high as €26bn for missing its EU climate targets, standing out as the worst in Europe per capita on its pledge to reduce emissions by 2030.
That figure, more the State's entire annual health budget, comes in a major report from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Ifac) and the Climate Change Advisory Council. The councils say Ireland risks paying “colossal” costs in the years ahead, having already foregone €500m of potential revenue it could have had if it was meeting its targets.
The report says it isn’t too late to act now to limit the damage with significant investment in the likes of the energy grid and in electric vehicles.
“Yes, it will cost money,” the Climate Change Advisory Council chair, Marie Donnelly, said. “But the key issue is that we need to spend the money now, rather than postponing it into the future at some time when maybe a leprechaun will find a pot of gold.”
The estimates for how much Ireland will have to pay if it fails to meet climate targets are broken down in several ways in the report.
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Firstly, it analyses the cost if Ireland went “business as usual” from now on and didn’t take further action. It also looks at the impact of additional measures that have been promised.
It then breaks down how much Ireland would have to pay by purchasing carbon credits off other countries who have met their targets to offset the fact we’ve not met them ourselves. It also examines how much Ireland would have to invest in its own infrastructure here to meet targets.
If Ireland doesn’t step up to climate action swiftly, it could end up with a bill of €8bn to €26bn to its EU partners.
Even if it was to put into effect the measures from its own climate action plan by 2030, it could still amount to a bill of between €3bn and €12bn.
The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council chair, Séamus Coffey, said there is a good deal of uncertainty which is reflected in the range of these estimates, but pointed out the cost is substantial under every scenario it examined.
“We’re looking at pretty significant sums regardless,” he said. “There are choices here. It’s pay now or in the future.”
Pushed for a best estimate, Mr Coffey said there isn’t any “hard or fast” way to accurately predict the cost — but it will certainly reach into the billions in the future.
In terms of solutions, the report recommends a major investment in Ireland’s energy grid, speeding up the roll out of electric vehicles, and supporting changes in farming practices.
Ms Donnelly said the Government needs to roll out targeted measures for electric vehicles (EV), particularly in rural areas without ready access to public transport, which could help implement a shift in transport emissions in this country.
“I think part of the issue is that the financial opportunity that is there has not been correctly sold to people," she said.
The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) has done analysis and found that 1km in an EV costs 3c. In a petrol car, it costs 10c.
Ms Donnelly said that modern EVs are more affordable than they have been and can achieve ranges up to 400km, but that the Government needs to make these and other improvements in the charging infrastructure “more visible” to encourage more take up.
She said the Government needs to take leadership in explaining to communities the benefits of actions it can take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“Political ownership of big infrastructure projects is absolutely fundamental to getting the job done,” she said.
She said that Ireland cannot have a situation where the Government comes out with a target that looks great on paper, but you have objections to it from the same political party at a local level.
"Strong, aligned political determination is key," she said.
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