Irish Examiner view: Peace talks leave Europe in the lurch

For Europe, these are defining moments and for our leaders, it is not just about saving Ukraine, but Europe itself

Tue, 18 Feb, 2025 - 01:00

As US state secretary Marco Rubio and his cohorts arrived in Riyadh yesterday to take part in today’s talks with his Russian counterparts on how to end the war in Ukraine, European presidents and prime ministers assembled in Paris trying to figure out how they have been cut from the decision-making process.

This scenario is, of course, bad for Europe and possibly Ukraine as well — as it sees both removed from a potential deal which they themselves could be left to police. That is not an appealing outcome for any of Europe’s interested parties.

After last week’s brutal awakening among Europe’s leaders about the state of the bloc’s alliance with its previously friendly American allies, the realisation that the US intends to seek peace with Russia without any European input has come as a rude shock and left many wondering where the continent stands in world affairs.

It is, of course, inconceivable that Europe would be left without a say in any settlement reached — in the same way it is unimaginable that Ukraine itself will have no input — but that is the situation as it stands.

The fear across Europe is not only that the Americans are prepared to negotiate without them, but that they will do so badly. Confusion and panic are rampant in a European camp fearful for the fate of 6m Ukrainians living under Russian occupation and for the future of the Nato security architecture.

Contradictory signals from the US are fanning the political flames from Kyiv to Warsaw, Berlin, Oslo, Stockholm, Paris, and London. On one hand, Keith Kellogg — the American special envoy for Ukraine — said that their position was to be tough on Russia and demand territory as well as security guarantees for Europe. But then defence secretary Pete Hegseth told Nato members he could not see Ukraine joining the security alliance, blowing out of the water any European
notion that such a move would be a key piece of leverage in negotiations with Russia.

The view of former British prime minister John Major, that the world will be in a very dangerous place if America does not stand with its allies, has a parallel to that of Taoiseach Micheal Martin, when he says Europe has to act as one when dealing with Donald Trump’s administration.

For Europe, these are defining moments and for our leaders, it is not just about saving Ukraine, but Europe itself.

AfD sends an election jolt

German is unique in having words that most other languages struggle to compartmentalise. Angst is one such.

And angst is now a palpable thing across Europe’s most powerful nation as it heads into Sunday’s general election. The mood among the electorate is downbeat and the nation has gone from having a confident swagger to being mistrustful, sullen, and fearful.

Despair over the country’s economy, anger about migration, fear over Islamist attacks, and rising energy costs — these are the issues concerning the German voter.

To insiders and onlookers alike, every accepted stereotype about the country — its fabled efficiency, work ethic, reliability, and engineering nous — has been challenged and there is now a widespread sense of stagnation.

That means this election is now being viewed as a best last chance to prevent the country falling into the maw of toxic nationalism, as it did back in the 1930s, with disastrous consequences for the nation itself and the rest of the world.

With the political establishment mired in its own inability to rise from a slough of despair, the rise of the radical far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party — who sympathise with Russia, despise European unity, and are vehement in their opposition to immigration — has frightened the
gizzard out of the ruling classes.

Having already shattered a post-war taboo in Berlin against co-operating with the extreme right in the Bundestag, the AfD is on a roll — also boosted by the support of US vice-president JD Vance last week and ongoing backing from political maverick Elon Musk — but unlikely to get its hands on the levers of power. A coalition government looks like the likely outcome from Sunday’s vote, but when it comes to the next election, probably in 2029, all bets are off.

Fork in the road

The staggering estimate of nearly €1bn to bring Cork’s roads up to standard — arrived at by Cork County Council — might seem outrageous but anyone who travels the highways and byways of Ireland’s biggest county will aver that it is money that needs to be spent.

Certainly, recent weather events — the big freeze last month and Storm Éowyn later in January — might have exacerbated an already bad situation (to the tune of €11m) but, in reality, they only shone a brighter light on the darkest corners of Cork’s crumbling road network.

And while Cork is not the only county suffering from disintegrating road infrastructure, the problems countrywide can be distilled clearly through the prism of what is needed to be done in just one, albeit large, single administrative entity.

Cork has some 12,000km of roads and many of these have fallen victim to critical underfunding in recent years. Their parlous state has been intensified by an ever-increasing number of severe weather events.

Not alone does work need to be done on the county’s roads to put them back in a workmanlike state but to future-proof them against the wrath that we know will come with climate change.

Past underfunding has had a critical impact on Cork’s roads but money has to be ringfenced now so it is readily available to effect repairs when the inevitable happens. That is not simply the situation in Cork but also countrywide.

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Irish Examiner view: Influence without consequence