The Micheál Martin Interview: The 'blissfully unaware' are blind to the growing fear in EU states

Russia is preoccupying the Taoiseach’s mind for more immediate reasons, as he sits down in front of the fireplace in his office.

Just like during the Second World War, when Ireland’s neutrality and geographic location shielded us from much of the barbaric horrors across the continent, today Martin believes we are “blissfully unaware” of the “existential fear” consuming many of our EU neighbours.

Travelling to regular meetings with his European counterparts in his previous foreign affairs role over the past two years, Martin is acutely aware that starkly different conversations are being had around Cabinet tables and in parliaments across the continent’s mainland.

He felt this difference again earlier this week, when he attended a meeting of European heads of state in Brussels — his first since resuming the role of Taoiseach.

Martin said: “There’s a real fear, particularly among the Baltics, Poland as well, Finland are concerned, obviously, more concerned if Ukraine falls. Or, if there’s peace, that merely means that Russia can pull back, replenish and come again. That means Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, in particular, feel very much under pressure. Some of those countries are cutting back in public expenditure to spend on defence capabilities. They’re so fearful, and it’s existential.

“We need to understand that this is not these countries being war-mongers, or anything like that, these countries are genuinely fearful because they’ve had history with Russia.”

In remarks that were not widely picked up here but which show the headspace others are in, Poland’s foreign affairs minister this week suggested that the EU should explore the idea of establishing a “rearmament bank” to raise the money it needs to ramp up its defence capabilities and deter Russian aggression.

Martin says Russia is now on a war economy footing, with the ability to manufacture weapons at a speed and scale with which others cannot compete.

“They can do more [weapons manufacturing] in three months than the West can do in 12 months,” Martin offers.

“Whether we like it or not, Ireland can’t stop countries who feel an existential threat from doing what they have to do to protect themselves. Some countries are spending 4% to 5% [of GDP] — the Balkans in particular — on security and it’s a genuine fear. And I don’t think that genuine fear is appreciated in Ireland.”

Asked about the fact that Irish political discourse is at a remove from very real discussions on defence that are happening across Europe, Martin says: “You’ve described it very well, you used the phrase ‘blissfully unaware’. I had the same feeling last Monday at the meeting [of European leaders], I was listening to country after country, and I was thinking; there’s no awareness in Ireland about this at all.

“And it’s not that Europe wants a war, it doesn’t, obviously it doesn’t want a war, but there’s real fear in Europe about the Russian agenda and events.”

By his own admission, Martin is a man who recognises that the most successful diplomacy is often silent.

What you refrain from saying can be more impactful than what is stated.

Just weeks after the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel, Martin visited the town of Sderot, where the visibly angry and emotional mayor, Alon Davidi, explained the experiences of his children growing up 1km from the Gaza border.

Detailing a life where air-raid sirens, bomb shelters, and fear are part of regular daily life, the mayor — who lost 45 people on October 7 and whose citizens had fled to hotels at the time — said: “I don’t know if you understand what the meaning of post-trauma is? Do your children suffer from that?”

Martin, a man who has buried two of his own children, sat stony-faced and silent in the windowless conference room.

After listening for many minutes, Martin explained that he was there to seek to understand the trauma that Davidi and his community have gone through, but made it clear that Ireland is in favour of a two-state solution, one which recognises the rights of Palestinians.

“Going out hectoring and lecturing isn’t going to achieve anything,” Martin says, when asked about US president Donald Trump and his recent comments on making Gaza a “Riviera of the Middle East”, but his comments could equally apply to the issue of defence and security.

“Engaging with people, giving your perspective and listening, I think is far better and more effective. That’s what I have done all my life politically but also as foreign minister on two occasions. I have genuinely sought to engage with people on this issue and to try and move things forward.”

Ireland’s defence strategy

On defence and security, Martin has now moved past the listening phase and believes that Ireland must begin to discuss what for us is one of the most contentious issues, that can draw passionate heat on both sides of the argument.

The National Consultative Forum on International Security Policy which took place in Cork, Galway, and Dublin in the summer of 2023, provided a kick-start to initial discussions around defence capabilities and our role in a world that is become increasingly militarised.

Each of the venues were targeted by protesters — an expected move given that our neutrality is seen as an intrinsic element of who we are as a people, reflecting the values we strongly cling to.

The forum’s report concluded that Ireland’s defence strategy will continue to “pose challenges” to Government and diplomats on the international stage.

But it also found there is currently “no popular mandate” to change the State’s ongoing policy of neutrality.

Martin, who spearheaded the forum, wants to significantly ramp up the discussions that are being had.

There is a “need to create debate”, he insists, before qualifying that “it can be debate from all sides on this question”.

These conversations will be facilitated through the establishment of a new standalone Oireachtas committee on security and defence.

He said: “You don’t get issues like this interrogated deeply. So people could make submissions to such a committee, deputies and senators could see what’s happening across Europe, and have European people in to discuss it and get a sense of what’s happening across Europe. We don’t necessarily have to agree with everything. So, for example, there will be increased European Union spending on defence capability in the next five to six years. That is a reality.”

Martin, however, is in “no doubt” that the State has to increase investment in its own defence capability, and this will include a primary radar system for Ireland — which is currently going through the tendering process.

Two C 295 aircraft, equipped for maritime surveillance, but which also deliver logistics support along with transport of troops and equipment, have already been acquired. There is “further purchasing coming” that will provide strategic airlift and also mention of acquiring more helicopters.

Cyber and maritime security are “two areas that there are huge vulnerabilities across Europe” and we have to “up our game on that”, he adds.

“Where our investments at the moment will be is in cyber security defences and in subsea cables and then strengthening the navy, strengthening the military,” he says.

“I think the expenditure will increase in the next two to three years from a capital perspective, as those systems come in.

“We have a procurement capacity and expertise issue, I’ll be honest about it, definitely we have to develop that, we are developing that, but Europe has to also. One of the big parts of the debate is the slowness of the European defence industry to produce weapons and ammunitions. Armies need weapons and ammunition.”

Irish SME’s can take advantage of an increased focus on security and he believes that private firms should be looking at developing technology to be used in the defence economy and industry as well.

“There will be a lot of European Union spending on this in the future, technology has dual uses and so on,” says Martin. “There will be innovation around all of this, we’ve seen what’s happened in terms of drone technology. We can’t be blind to all of that.”

In a rapidly changing world, traditional warfare has been joined by a multitude of equally terrifying threats.

Ireland has already experienced some high-profile and damaging cyber attacks, but our reliance on natural gas as an energy source — which is provided through sub-sea pipelines from Scotland — is also a concern.

Liquified natural gas

Liquified natural gas is a controversial solution but is in Martin’s view the only viable option to protect ourselves: “There’s issues around energy security. If anything was to happen the gas pipelines, we’d be in deep trouble. So we do need a backup security.

“There is a vulnerability there, and we have an obligation to the people, to protect them from these scenarios, and it’s not something that can happen immediately, but we are going to develop an initiative around this, which already has been worked on in the department and was being worked on over the last 12 months. In our view, there’s no option but to do that to protect our energy security.”

Investing in US liquified natural gas, not just in Ireland but across Europe, could provide a bartering chip if Trump does follow through on tariff threats.

“Why is Europe continuing to purchase [liquified natural gas] from Russia, which only helps their war effort?” Martin asks.

It’s a sobering discussion, but one which Martin is clear must be expanded on at a political and wider societal level.

He says: “I would look at security in a broader way, not just in terms of our defence forces. We do have to invest in the country’s resilience, because cyber security can affect a university, it can affect hospitals, as we know.

“A lot of investment in security should also be in those areas to ensure that there’s resilience against people’s daily lives being upended.”