With the Mediterranean now burning each summer, where will the Irish holiday in 2025?

In July, Italy’s health ministry placed 12 of the country’s cities under the most severe level of heat warning as temperatures climbed above 40C — almost double the heat you might expect from a typical “fine summer’s day” in Ireland.

That same month, officially the second hottest month across the planet since records began with the hottest day in history also recorded on July 22 , residents and tourists at Mediterranean resorts were told to stay indoors to avoid the worst of the heat.

Spain and Italy were probably the countries worst affected with temperatures scorching past the 48C mark on a number of occasions.

Meanwhile, the now familiar occurrence of rampant wildfires in Europe made its annual summer appearance — with regions of Greece, Spain, and Switzerland all heavily affected.

At the same time, thousands of heat-related deaths were reported across the continent — notably amongst vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with health problems. These temperatures being experienced, which are by now commonplace, are scarcely compatible with life let alone conducive to a relaxing holiday.

A sun worshipper seeking to lie out in heat in excess of 40C would not be long for this world

The fact that these weather extremes are the result of a changing climate is indisputable, but they are also the norm.

New norms influence behaviour as much as they are dictated by it.

For decades, Irish holidayers have sought to hit the sunny coasts of mainland Europe for their annual getaway — looking for weather that they couldn’t get at home — with the south of France and coastal Spain being particularly popular destinations.

However, unliveable temperatures and the dangers of wildfires were not part of the deal. With that in mind, are our behaviours changing?

“Undoubtedly, they are — particularly in terms of a fall-off in the popularity of holiday destinations like Greece, or even Hawaii, anywhere that has been affected by fires really,” says Jackie Sheahan.

Ms Sheahan, the sales director with travel management company Frosch Ireland, notes that “Greece in particular” has seen a fall-off in terms of being a sought-after destination for her firm’s clients.

“Maui and the US were also big destinations for us, but the weather that has been experienced has had a profound effect on people’s booking behaviours,” she says.

Other locations are still holding firm in terms of popularity, such as France and Spain. However, given what has happened in recent years, change may come to those markets too — although it could be limited to a move to different, more northerly destinations in the same countries.

The “coolcation” is now a thing also, with people looking for a holiday somewhere where refuge from extreme temperatures can be guaranteed.

“Previously, if someone was going to the likes of Dubai, then 45C heat was to be expected. People weren’t expecting that kind of thing in Greece, but that has been the reality.

“Now, people will start going back to Rhodes and Crete despite the wildfires.”

“But the fact is the weather has led to a huge increase in people looking to go to new destinations.”

Expanded routes

Popular new destinations include places like Turkey — where flights to tourist destinations have now been expanded to year-round services from their old seasonal offerings — with people also now looking at destinations they would have sought out at other times of the year.

“A few years back, walking holidays in the likes of Switzerland were a big thing. Now, people are going back there not to walk but just to be,” Ms Sheahan adds.

“The climate is definitely changing, and it is opening up new opportunities. It is getting people to change their habits and behaviours, because you can’t lie out in 40C heat.”

The net effect of the weather changing so dramatically and definitively has also been to change the seasonality of holidays

Where previously people had seen the peak summer months of June and July as being the ideal time to vacation, now people are looking further afield to August and September and even beyond, Ms Sheahan explains.

But booking behaviours are also now a lot more nuanced than they used to be, with people more willing to book closer to their date of travel due to the uncertainty of temperatures. This is opposed to the traditional holiday-booking times of December and January, when people traditionally sought to stave off the gloom of early winter nights by giving themselves some sun to look forward to.

“Last-minute booking has always been a thing, but it’s becoming more prevalent because people are starting to look at temperatures. Many don’t want to be looking in January for August because they simply don’t know what prevailing temperatures are going to be like until closer to the time. In Greece, in August, you used to be looking at the high 20s or low 30s — that is not the case now,” Ms Sheahan says.

The changing temperatures have also had an effect on how holidaymakers factor in the hiring of a car — both from the point of view of the rental companies, which have sustainability goals to think about, and the travellers themselves.

“It had been arduous over the last couple of years anyway in terms of the global fleet having shrunk due to covid and rental companies adjusting their stock to account for people being locked down,” Ms Sheahan says, citing the example of Hertz — which reduced its own fleet by 25% at the time.

“Then demand surged again when the pandemic lifted, particularly in southern Europe, with the knock-on effect that it became difficult to secure a car at any good price.

“Costs went up by 30% in 2022 compared with pre-pandemic levels, although that trend has faded a little this year,” she says.

“But now, the EV situation has taken over. They’re being pushed hard by a lot of car companies and costs have increased in tandem.”

Things are now trending towards more short-term rentals, with pick-up location not necessarily being the same as a car’s drop-off

“The corporate market was always like that, but it’s being matched by leisure bookings now also,” Ms Sheahan says.

Other trends in car hire include the very definite emphasis being placed on electric vehicles or cars that will otherwise help with carbon-offset targets for the companies themselves.

“For holidays things have changed too,” says Ms Sheahan.

“People are looking for smaller, more fuel-efficient cars rather than big SUVs. They also want digital pick-ups, lockboxes — there is a lot of focus on on-the-go mobility and flexible rental locations where you’re picking up in one place and dropping off in another.”

But one message has been heard loud and clear: “Book well in advance.”

“Availability is recovering and the issue of demand has evened out, but people being able to source a car is still a consistent problem.”